Latest Update: 19th September 2013
I have been far too quiet while the whole world shifted its attention to the Island of Cyprus. Although this was the change for this blog to shine, my direct and indirect involvement in what has happened in Cyprus since the 15th of March has kept me far too busy to post. This is mostly English articles with some Greek ones. Please paste in the comments section other good articles in English, Greek and even better in other languages.
Below is an attempt to provide articles and sources relating to the Cypriot situation, for people to use as they see fit. I do not intend to keep updating it. So if you find this post a long time after it was written, I suggest look for newer articles and sources.
All this work let to the paper which I wrote here: as it is a work in progress, please use the comment section to correct mistakes.
Section 1: Documents
A special mention should go to Cyprus.com from putting together a list of official documents, relating to the Cyprus bailout, many of whom are given both in their draft and in their final form in order to allow you to compare. Bravo to whoever is behind that effort.
Troika Memorandum documents and Bail-out amount controversy
- The final Memorandum of understanding between the Troika and Cyprus (go to Cyprus.com link above to see its various drafts).
- The very worrying revised (9th April) Debt Sustainability Analysis as leaked by the Financial Times with additional documents also provided by them
- Eurogroup statement on Cyprus, 12th April 2013
- The loan guarantees of the Troika Loan as posted by Stockwatch.com.cy
- Cypriot Government Bonds are allowed to be used as collateral for assitance to the ECB
- Just how big is the Cyprus bailout by Peter Spiegel in the Financial times
- Yannis Mouzakis on why the Debt Sustainability Document is a bad joke and his attempt to find out the true cost of the bailout
- The final bill for the bailed-in depositors shows bailout is perhaps higher than the most pessimistic estimates with 7.8bn euro deposits wiped out and 1.5bn bondholders
- Joseph Cotterill of the Financial Times Alphaville argues that debt restructuring is part of the deal, but he is suprised foreign bondholders are not attefected
- Laws Passed on the 2nd of May from the Cypriot parliament in relation to the MoU with the Troika
- Report of Standard and Poor outlining risks, January 2012.
- Leaked Documents of the IMF council on Cyprus dated 15th of May
- And IMF risk mappng of the debt sustainability
Bank Related Documents
- Bank of Cyprus annual report 2011 and stress test October 2012. For Older links see Cyprus.com
- Final Arrangements on the Bank of Cyprus Shareholding structure
- Marfin Popular (Laiki) Bank annual report 2011 and stress test July 2012.For Older links see Cyprus.com
- Bank Market share data by month
- MONEYVAL report on Cyprus 27th September, 2011
- Issues Raised by MONEYVAL Customer Due Diligence and Deloilte (In Greek). 1, 2, 3.
- Full report of Moneyval on Cyprus are requested by the Troika
- Full report of Customer Due Diligence by Deloitte
- Basel Index of Governance, which includes issues of money laundering
- Great Paper by Constantinos Stefanou warning of the risks to Cyprus due to the structure and size of the banking sector
- A great "for beginners" walk through of the Cypriot banking crisis
- Report on size of the important of business services sector by PWC with Fiona Mullen and others as
- Pireaus Bank announcement of the Sale of the Cypriot Branches in Greek, with the data on what it got
- Why the Sallas Family of Pireaus Bank had perhaps a conflict of interest in buying Cypriot Branches of Marfin in Greece
- And how Pireaus has already made at least 3.4bn from the deal
- Bank of Cyprus unified balance sheet after the bail-ins and the absorption of Laiki bank
- The emerging pension crisis due to the bail-in and the pension funds who are at risk
- But the new Bank of Cyprus has too high an ELA, due to the moving of Laiki ELA to the new Bank of Cyprus
- A good IMF banking crisis database to compare aspects of the Cypriot mess
- Monetary and Financial Statistics by the Central Bank that includes amount of deposits
- PIMCO due diligence report on the Cypriot banking sector as released by the Central Bank of Cyprus
- The Cooperative Sectors' descision to issue 1.2bn worth of shares of its Capitalisation
- A nice simple example to show when a bank is illiquid and when it is insolvent
- Dr. Michalakis Sarris and his comments in the investigative committee (in greek), 1, 2, 3
- Stavros Zenios saying that Laiki was allowed to be looted and those who had to stop it just watched
- The odd story with Bank of Cyprus Romania being taken over by Marfin Romania, which is owned by Laiki, which is taken over by bank of Cyprus...
- What Bank of Cyprus is getting from Laiki (Warning: it is dated and might have changed)
- Alvarez And Marshall Report on the Marfin Merger with Marfin Greece and why Bank of Cyprus held so many Greek Government bonds, courtesy of the Cyprus Mail
- Comment with data on how Laiki Bank was destroyed from Greece, by Antonis Anotniou, Sigmalive
- Emergency Liquidity Assistance: the directive of the European Commission (2009)
- The Amount of ELA given to Laiki Bank
- Paper on why the ELA is a problem and why it should not be given to Laiki, by Costas Xiouros. Greek summary here. Dissagrement by Yannis Trigides
- ECB and why its lack of accountability mattered in the case of Cyprus
- Current state of capital controls as reported by stockwatch. For actual capital controls see the Central Bank announcements in Greek and English. Note that different announcements are in Greek that in English so make sure you check both.
- Reuters special investigation on Vgenopoulos role in the collapse of Laiki bank
- And Vgenopoulos answer to the Reuters story
- Financial Times Alphaville analysis of the Alavarez and Marshall reports
- The decision by the Central Bank of Cyprus which effectivly keeps 90% of Bank of Cyprus deposits over 100,000 frozen until September
- The Anouncement of the Members of the National Economic Council, of which i am a proud member
- MEP's of the European Parliament determine to understand who the Cyprus deal came about
- A union of banks... but only to reduce the risk of future crisis. The periphery will have to wait for them...Same with president of Eurogroup
- Vultures circle Cypriot Deposits with companies who have their deposits actually named.
- A Cypriot take of the European Parliament's Economic Commission grilling of Dijsselbloem
- Andrew Duff, MEP, his questions and the answers from EC commission, ECB
- Unsubstantiated Reports from Cyprus that bail-out was harsh, being a political price to pay for saying no to peace deal in 2004
- Bank of Cyprus restructuring plan
- The shock resignation of the head of the central co-op bank
- The latest Economic Report of the Central bank of Cyprus (June 2013)
- Suggestions of possible large sum given by Vgenopoulos to former Central Banker who approved his buyout of Laiki bank
Projections on the future of the Cyprus economy
- Report on Stockwatch with link to projection by the Centrer of economic research, university of Cyprus. Full report is here
- Deflation already took place in the month of April by Stockwatch
- Russia Accepting a restructuring of the direct loan to the republic of Cyprus
- The low absorption rate of EU funds hampers the process as notes by Cyprus Mail
- Business confidence at historically low levels. March data was good (pre bail-in). April data was dismal
- Sales of cars reduced by 50%
Analysis on the situation of Cyprus:
Pre 15th of March
- Lee Buchheit and Mitu Gulati were hosted by the European University Cyprus in December and they tried to warn us by arguing for debt restructuring. The analysis of their speech, along with their power points (as hyperlinks). The videos of the presentation here. They also found ways to minimise holdouts in the event Cyprus did attempt a foreign debt restructuring
- Foreign academics openly calling for the fact that Cypriot depositors would have been bailed in by Brugel
- Landon Thomas Jr of New York Times hinting of a bail-in in January 2013- i told him then No way we would accept it....
- My 6 point rant against Christofias in December in the Guardian when i was crying from frustration at his actions and lack of correct actions that led us here. For those who still think he is not to blame, remember this?
- Reports from the IMF seemed to indicate that even before March it was hardening its position
- Pro bail-in of depositors articles emanating from Washinton mainly where the IMF is based
- And Eurogroup more or less expressed similar opinions through Junker
- How we lost the Money laundering accusation blame game as the Christofias government was more interested in elections rather than tackling the issue in the foreign press. We now got a clean bill of health
- A very good paper by Stavros Zenios who called the situation "A Perfect crisis" and suggested alternatives that were, alas, ignored
- Frances Coppola indicating the crisis is a Central Bank crisis more than a debt crisis
- Paul De Grauwe and Juemei Li on how austerity was orininaly the medicine for market borrowing and in that repect it failed
Between 15th and 25th of March
- Joseph Cotterril of the Financial Times Alphaville said depositor bail-in "was a stupid idea whose time has come"
- My article in Altheia on how the Cyprus parliament has destroyed us, like the idea to go to war in 1870 by france (greek)
- Very good analysis by Frances Copola that was the first to point out that it would create liquidity problems
- Reuters giving us a step by step "what happened" on the 15th of March
- Lee Buchheit and Mitu Gulati's alternative solution "Walking back from Cyprus" at Vox.
- Excellent analysis of the situation by Exotix Finance
- Capital controls in Cyprus and the Icelandic experience by Jon Danielsson
- Uri Dadush of Carnergie Endowment calling the bail-in decision "legally dubious, morally unjustifiable, managerially inept, and economically foolish".
- Brugel Blog which was for the bail-in is appalled by the fact that insured depositors are affected.
- Alternatives to plan that was rejected by parliament by Thorsten Beck
- Defence both of the bail-in of depositors and of the decision not to put uninsured depositors on the table in Vox.
- Nicolas Veron on why Cyprus shows the need for greater integration in Europe
- The idiocy of Parliament, first saying no and then wanting to vote again, only for the ECB to refuse it (it did not want the levy on insured depositors)
- Excellent Riposte to the above and more by the European Economics Acedemic "Par excellence" by Charles Wyploz
- Why Russia Refused to help Cyprus and the aimless trip of Michalakis Sarris
- The unbelievably stupid idea to sell the gold reserves of Cyprus
- The emotionally scarring report of the finance minister of Malta in how bad things were Sarris in the Eurogroup.
- Radical option of raiding Greek deposits, never really discussed
Post 25th of March
- Suggestions to move to a market based system for capital liquidity, were I also contributed two ideas. Here it is in an older form in English.
- Demands for Debt restructuring by myself and other Cypriot Academics.
- Pawel Morski's Excellent Blogpost on Cyprus "The operation was a success, shame the patient died". has the execellent line "No human agency has acheived so much economic destruction in such a short time without the use of weapons." Check this and this analysis he did on Cyprus and the role of Eurgroup and ECB as well. And his analysis of capital controls in Cyprus
- Two analysis by Marios Zachariades of the University of Cyprus on why the bailout of Cyprus was not fair, at econbroser and Irish Economy Blog
- University of Cyprus Academics proposal for Cyprus going forward. This is seen as building on proposals suggested between the two Eurogroup negotiations here.
- Bloomberg Business Week, with a funny quote from me by James G. Neuger. Also in Kathimerini (English edition)
- Doomed to miss targets say Foreign commentators by Nicos Chrysoloras
- Blogpost of friend and good economist Michalis Zaouras on aspects of the deal. Note how increasingly frustrated and worried they get as he talks on the Medium term problems and the bail-in
- Inside Merkels bet with excerpts of Merkel and Anastasiades phone conversations by the Wall Street Journal
- Patroclos of Cyprus Mail saying things we all know but can not state as fact
- Interesting post in how European (German) banks given time and inside information to pull out of Cyprus prior to enforced resolution
- Michalis Persianis of Kathimerini commenting on Hedge funds trying to buy Bank of Cyprus deposits and on the possibility of selling assets
- Does deposit insurance mean anything in Europe after Cyprus?
- A good alternative to the bail-in of depositors by Ledra Capital. Sadly the IMF would not have accepted it I think
- A summary of what happened with the good humour of Stefanos Everipidou at Cyprus mail
- Looking ahead: Pissarides interview on how the Cyprus of the future should look like.
- Nicos Chrysoloras, with great experience with Brussels, thinks Cyprus bailout was a punishment not a solution
- Hugo Dixon point out what i also fear: the banks are still a mess
- Excellent post on Cyprus by LolGreece, who methodically looks at all aspects of the Cyprus mess (In Greek).
- Excellent article by the Wall Street and Holman W Jenkings "Cyprus Bailout, Revisited"
- Kikis Kazamias, Minister of Finance under Christophias, saying under oath that he did not deem it important to tell the president what the effects of the Greek PSI would have on the Cypriot Banks
- And report on how high interest lending under the Crhistophias government has led to a very high interest payments for the new government.
Current Suggetions for the future of Cyprus
Articles in the Economist on Cyprus
- My original quote when i started to worry 2nd December 2010 Europe's Other Island
- Leading up to the first Eurogroup: Sad Cyprus
- The Economist's Summary of first bailout "unfair and short sighted"
- Through a Glass, Darkly 27th April 2013 where i am quoted
- Free Exchange: An interview with Athanasios Orphanides
- The economist take on whether Cyprus should leave the Euro
Cyprus and "CyExit" - Why quitting the Euro is a bad idea only for Cyprus
- Krgman's artcile on why Cyprus should leave the Euro
- Excellent article by Landon Thomas Jr in the NY times on the issue
- Reply against Krguman By the excellent "for the island" blogger, who is also a Kathimerini.com.cy senior economist. An excellent blog in English and in Greek about the Cypriot economy. See dramatic posts on the 15th/16th of March.
- A very popular video with my father on the pros and cons of Euro exit by the Cyprus Mail
- Megan Greene's Suggestion for Cyprus to leave the Euro
- My reply: A large powerpoint presentation on why Cyprus can not leave the Euro, Even if it wanted to go.
- The Cyprus Academics Initiative to the shoddy work done on for Cyprus Exit:
Multimedia on the Cyprus Crisis
- A very good video summary of how we reached the 15th of March 2013 Eurogroup meeting by the ProMotionDm
- My Radio discussion with Uri Dadush and John Kirkegard with KCRW, USA
- My first Al Jazeera video interview on the 18th of March
- Panel Prior to the bailout where i erroneously stated that there will be no haircut. I apologised to the Cypriot public for my comment the next time i was on the same programme
- My lecture on Dukascopy TV on "Cyprus and the first 100 days of the new president"
- My second lecture on Dukascopy TV "latest development on Cyprus" just after the 15th of March Eurogroup
- A very popular video with my father on the pros and cons of Euro exit by the Cyprus Mail
- Three videos of the one day workshop I organised at the European University of Cyprus on the 30th of January called "Cyprus: immediate challenges ahead". Speakers were Fiona Mullen, Mitu Gulati and Lee Buchheit
- Two Podcast by Economist: On first Eurogroup and the role of the ECB on the second round of Eurogroup decisions on Cyprus "Uniquily bad?"
- Excellent do it yourself calculator by the FT on how much Cyprus needed to bail in insures vs uninsured on the 15th March to get 5.8 bn is was lacking